MLB Player Props 8/5
MonotoneBetting is back with 3 picks for Wednesday's all-day slate!
Back after an 0-3 day yesterday. Got the exact lineup I wanted with good prices, young guys just didn’t come through for us against Rodriguez. Back today with a couple bets that start at 2pm for today’s early slate!
Ezequiel Duran (TEX) o1.5 HRRBI -110
Risk 1u -105 MGM, BO/110 -FAN, -117 NoVig, -120 365/HR/BO, -120 DK/CZR, playable to -135
Duran has been sneakily very underrated all year long, and with the top of the Rangers lineup healthy and playing well we finally have a strong lineup quadrant or back here. Duran has been mostly hitting in the #5 hole but we haven’t seen the construction with Seager back vs a LHP, but at worse he’ll be hitting #5 with Seager/Nimmo in front of him and probably Burger/Carter behind him with upside to hit #2. He also plays like every position with strong defense, so it’s very unlikely he gets pinch hit for. He’s coming off of a hilarious walk-off single, which was 100% an error with Jung Hoo Lee falling and looking like he’s never played in the outfield before. Beyond that he’s hitting .278 on the season but that improves to .352 L15 and .295 L30.
Carson Whisenhunt has not good been since being called up, with 14 earned runs allowed in 4 starts, walking at least 2 batters in every outing. He does have good whiff and chase rates, but they haven’t resulted in as many strikeouts as you’d expect with a 18% K%. Additionally, when batters do make contact they hit it hard with a 12% barrel rate, 47% hard hit rate, and only a 33% ground ball rate. He produces good whiffs with his changeup & slider but the fastball has graded out very poorly with a .473 xBA/.818 xSLG… he’s also hung the changeup a decent amount with a .434 xSLG & 2 HR’s allowed despite it being his best pitch (and the one he throws the most). For Duran the changeup has arguably been his best pitch vs LHP with a .353 BA/.529 SLG this year. The Giants bullpen is also tired and full of a bunch of random guys (especially after selling at the deadline), so we should have some good chances after Whisenhunt’s 5-innings.
