MLB Player Props 7/12
MontoneBetting is back with 2 MLB bets for Sunday!
Nice 3-0 day on Friday, didn’t love yesterday's slate but back with a couple plays for Sunday’s! Games start super early so wanted to get these two plays out ASAP, both games start at 1:35 EST. Will continue diving into the slate and looking for more adds, feel free to hit me with any questions!
Samuel Basallo (BAL) o1.5 HRRBI -135
Risk to win 0.5u -135 DK, -136 BO, -150 FAN/DK/365, playable to -150 or pivot to o1.5 TB +100 or better
Seth Lugo has been a good pitcher in the bigs for most of his career, but there has been a decline in the last two seasons with a 4.15 ERA / 5.17 xERA in 2025 and a 4.56 ERA and 5.45 xERA this year. He’s done ok at limiting homers but not hard contact, allowing a 42% hard hit rate (20th percentile) and a 10.2% barrel rate (15th percentile). His advanced stat profile is a mess in general, ranking bottom 10th percentile or worse in xBA, xERA, Chase %, and Whiff %. You can honestly tell from his box score, allowing 112 hits in 100 innings with only 80 strikeouts, he’s allowing a ton of contact and his stuff just isn’t consistently winning in the zone. He has been above average in the walk department, but that will be tested against a very patient Baltimore lineup. Should be some good in-zone opportunities for the young catcher.
Basallo has been playing good ball this series, and I love his upside against Lugo who’s struggled against lefties. He’s currently in the #5 hole so he gets RBI opportunities with Ward and Alonso in front of him, and Beavers/Cowser/Blaze behind him, pretty good setup. Basallo has rated out well against right handed pitching, with a .279 xBA and a .543 xSLG on the season. Most of his damage comes off of fastballs, and Lugo relies on the 4SFB/SI/CUT combo for 55% of his pitch mix, which he’s posted expected slugging numbers of .669/1.101/.556 against RHP. Lugo mixes it up with the curveball/change up combo also, which Basallo doesn’t slug super well but is hitting .263/.274 xBA against. Was a little concerned that he might lose an AB getting pinch hit for, but they stuck with him left-on-left in game 1 of the series resulting in a game winning home run… not sure why you would mix it up!
