MLB Player Prop 8/6
MonotoneBetting is back with a prop add for tonight's Diamondbacks vs Padres game
Brutal day yesterday, with Alvarez getting the job done early but Duran squandering a couple good opportunities, Elly getting stranded, then the Phillies bullpen choking late. The worst thing about having a bad week is getting fired up to bounceback and seeing a lackluster slate like today’s… but still found 1 appealing bet for tonight. Excited to get back after it tomorrow with a bigger/better slate.
I’ve also started writing up some NFL previews that I plan on posting over the next couple weeks, will have more on that soon. The current plan is to write up some NFL futures, best ball/fantasy targets, and some general team/division specific previews. As we start to get more player specific niche futures I will also be investing some time in those markets, but hopefully even if you don’t like season-long futures you can still find some value on those as we get ready for the NFL seasons.
Ty France (SDP) o1.5 HRRBI -132
Risk to win 0.5u -130 score, -132 DK, -135 HR/365/NoVig, -137 CZR, -140 FD, playable to -140 or pivot to o1.5 TB +110 or better
Was going back fourth between France and Tatis today, who both hit left handed pitching well. This Padres team as a whole has been much better against left handed pitching this season (.675 OPS vs RHP jumps to .759 vs LHP), and now they see their third straight left-handed starter in a row (Diamondbacks throwing three straight lefty starters, decreasing in quality, doesn’t seem to make a ton of sense to me in general). I’ve been fading Kohl Drake since his first start vs Washington, as I was unimpressed by his 10% walk rate, 18% strikeout rate, and only 25% ground ball rate in triple AAA… he has reached the major league level and posted a lot of those same stats through three starts. His chase stuff actually does look a bit better at the major league level, but the overall profile of a contact pitcher who struggles to stay in the zone means you’re either going to walk a lot of batters and rely on BABIP luck or you’re going to be forced into the zone with below average stuff. His profile reminds me of Whisenhunt from yesterday, a guy that has some of the tools to be successful but hasn’t put them together yet, they both similarly have good whiff inducing offspeed stuff, but the fastballs get clobbered and the pitch sequencing isn’t experienced enough to make up for it. He’s throwing the 4SFB at a 48% rate (too much) and it’s allowing a .312 xBA and .642 xSLG, he added a cutter to take some of the pressure off but that’s been even worse with a .479 xBA/.559 xSLG. His 15% barrel rate and 52.5% hard hit rate indicate that the advanced stats are deserving, and I’m not sure how you pitch like that successfully when you don’t endure ground balls or strikeouts at even average rates.
On the other side I think France should benefit from that, and he’s been consistently better against left handed pitching this season, with a .301 AVG and .482 SLG. Was kind of tricky to pick at the top of this order as some of the names like Machado can be inconsistent (kind of HR or bust) but having guys like Merrill and Bogartes hitting behind him in the 6/7 holes definitely gives him more run scored upside than most 5 hole hitters. I think Tatis is also great at the top of this order, but his price also reflects that. We are still getting France at a playable price, and he’s arguably been their best player over the last month hitting .369/.643 SLG. I’m not sure if the power surge is going to continue like it was in June, but France has great bat to ball skills, and the increases in bat speed and exit velocity give him a well balanced profile. He’s also crushed the changeup/fastball combo that Drake relies on against right handed hitters
Took small bets on Machado HR +424 Kalshi & France HR +545 NoVig, couldn’t resist it after looking at those Drake FB/HH rates.